1月 03 2010
Predicting Social Web 2010
Happy New Year!
It’s been a while since I last updated this blog because I was too busy taking care of my kids. Today, I’d like to write down some thoughts on Social Web (mainly about Japanese Market) and its prediction for this year.
2009 was a huge mile stone for Japanese Social Web, there emerged the first OpenSocial container, Social Application market, on horizon. mixi Appli have been doing quite well and interests around social application market seems getting even bigger. Other japanese big SNS, like Mobage is awaiting to release its mobile social application platform too. 2009 can be recorded as the first year of Social Web for Japanese. And it’s my honor to be able to have got involved in it.
By the way, I’ve posted an article “Predicting Social Web 2009” in the beginning of 2009 (Japanese only), which was influenced by Mr. John McCrea’s article.
Reviewing my prediction for 2009
Like John McCrea has done, I review my prediction here.
Google turns to Social Network
In the article, I predicted that Google will put their social graph into iGoogle (meaning OpenSocial-ize) including the ones on FriendConnect, and make their whole services more social. Yes, iGoogle now is OpenSocial container, but they haven’t associated it with FriendConnect yet.
Meanwhile, services like Wave, Docs, Calendar, Android shares the same social graph which Google Contacts (part of Gmail) provide. This means Google is turning itself more social. Slowly, but steadily, Google is being Socialized. I’ll keep my eyes on Google’s socialization.
Market platforms
iPhone App Store emerged in 2008 as an example, I foresited that there might be various markets, selling videos, music… Market for creators.
I might be able to say mixi Appli, Android market were answers for this, but they are just for developers. Not quite matching my prediction.
Social Ad platform wars
I predicted there would be social ad platforms and its war. On top of Facebook expanding its online ad share, Google revealed social ad platform using FriendConnect. These may be counted as the beginning of social ad war, aren’t they? ;)
Predicting Social Web 2010
So, my prediction for 2009 was not totally wrong, but a bit going further than it actually was. But never mind, I try the same thing again for this year :)
Twitter will stay on top issue around web 2010. Including Japenese prime minister, a lot of celebrities are starting to tweet in Japan. Talking about celebrities, Ameba Now should be the strongest micro blogging service candidate to hire, but Twitter is attracting and making them start to tweet by themselves. So it’s clear that Twitter will be talked a lot in 2010.
Realtime web
Realtime web will also be focused on in Japan this year. You might say, you’ve been able to use mobile and talk with people real time on 2 channel already, but the realtime web in 2010 is social. Looking at Twitter, it is needless to say social realtime web is comfortable to dive in, mixi Voice or GREE Hitokoto will trail the path. Don’t forget that one timeline is enough for one person.
Activity Streams
As you may know, yet another open spec ActivityStream has been drafted by people from Microsoft, Google, Facebook, MySpace, etc. It’s already been deployed on Facebook, MySpace and will be included in OpenSocial spec. ActivityStream is extension of Atom and can describe more semantic and thus social than the one in OpenSocial’s current spec. Also, AS is one of the essential component of realtime web. Since timeline on micro blogs and AS are good suit, they are tend to be merged, just like GREE’s Hitokoto or Facebook. PubsubHubbub will help its realtime-ness too.
Federated Identities
With specs like OpenID, OAuth, individual’s personality will be reflected on the web clearer than before. OpenID getting more common, APIs like social graph, activity, payment will strengthen a person with its online identity. Similar services as Facebook Connect, Google FriendConnect should drive these tendencies too.
OpenStack
OpenStack used to have OpenID, OAuth, OpenSocial, XRDS-Simple, PortableContacts. 2010 seems to add ActivityStreams, Salmon Protocol, PubsubHubbub, Webfinger. This is plan more than prediction though.
Social Media Marketing
Although there’s been Social Media Marketing(SMM) already, 2010’s SMM will be more realtime and direct.
In old SMM, people try to make buzz indirectly by creating contents on media like Youtube, blogs, etc. They tend to refuse responding to users’ comments and was one way communication.
In recent SMM, there’s increasing number of cases where marketers join social activity like on Twitter, Facebook, and communicate with other users directly. These activities fit in SNS (explicit social graph) more than blogs (implicit social graph).
Finally
Please join SocialWeb Japan. It’s a community sharing infomations like this post. (Sorry we speak japanese only there)
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